Election Projections

For the betting crowd, feel free to use this space to share your best guesstimates about the outcome of tomorrow’s election.

Others are FAR more into this stuff than me and have the whole projection thing down to an nearly exact science, so my opinion counts for little beyond the fun of hypothetical wagering and possibly scoring an “I told you so” booya after the fact. That said, here’s the way I figure the result will shake out:

Conservatives: 147; Liberals: 56; NDP: 80; Bloc: 25; Greens: 0

As for voter turnout, I’m guessing that it will be 56%. Depending on the weather, that figure might break 60% but I rather doubt it.

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25 Comments

Filed under 2011 Canadian Election

25 responses to “Election Projections

  1. CPC – 148
    LIB – 64
    NDP- 72
    BQ – 23
    Ind – 1

  2. CuJoYYC

    Conservatives: 121; Liberals: 97; NDP: 70; Bloc: 20; Greens: 0
    Voter turnout 61.4%

  3. Grammins: Who’s your Independent… Helena Guergis?

  4. Andre Arthur, Quebec, though he’s a Con ally more than a true independent.

  5. Oh, is that the former radio jock in QC?

  6. Northern PoV

    full disclosure – I posted this elsewhere….
    Given what happened to the surging Lib-Dems in Britain recently, I fear the orange wave will fade – but not soon enough to prevent spooking just enough folks into voting for Dear Leader.
    Cons: 160
    Libs: 63
    NDP: 55
    Bloc: 30

    Gawd, I hope I am wrong but… through years of painful therapy (ie watching and working in elections) I have come to never over estimate the collective intelligence of the electorate. Sigh!

  7. sassy

    I won’t even hazard to guess at the outcome BUT I do think the voter turnout will be closer to 65%.

    Educated guess or wishful thinking, take your pick.

  8. UU4077

    Cons – 143
    Libs – 65
    NDP – 59
    Bloc – 40
    Green – 1

  9. UU4077

    Sorry …

    voter turnout 63%

  10. sapphireandsteel

    Easy, cons win I imbibe too much, cons lose I imbibe too much. 100% chance I vote in the morning and it’s an early night.

    That’s my outcome prediction. Strange times we live in 😉

  11. cpc 188
    lpc 45
    ndp 35
    bloc 40

  12. Don’t know the total breakdown.

    But, by my count I figure there are 18 seats in B.C. that, if swung strategically, would stop the Cons’ hopes for a majority, cold, all on their own.

    It consists of:
    11 NDP
    6 Liberal
    1 Green

    The details of the Gang of 18 can be found here

  13. tofkw

    As with Northern PoV, I’ve posted this elsewhere.
    CPC – 132
    NDP – 86
    LPC – 76
    Bloc – 12
    Ind – 2

  14. Blues Clair

    Oh what the hell… hopefully the NDP gets over one hundred seats.
    CPC : 144
    NDP : 94
    LPC : 50
    Bloc : 20

    After tomorrow, it would be good for Ignatieff to take a long walk in the spring slush.

  15. Can I play too?
    Cons 158
    Libs 66
    NDP 50
    Bloc 33
    Indy 1 maybe im a useless tool, but, I just dont see how the NDP can get over 50 seats, and, the LPC base is too proud to stoop down and vote Dipper….mind you I though Paul Martin would still be PM today, so…

  16. hitfan

    I posted this on Kinsella’s blog last week:

    Conservatives 142
    NDP 72
    Liberals 66
    Bloc 27
    Independent 1

    I’m 50-50 on the Orange Crush wave, but the high polling numbers still have to count for seats, somehow. But I think it’s 50-50 whether or not the NDP finishes ahead of the Liberals. The Liberals have stronger candidates, and I doubt that University Marxists who traditionally run for the NDP in their weaker ridings will be able to carry them.

  17. Rotterdam

    Con 150
    Lib 50
    NDP 90
    Green 1

  18. I am hoping for a Hung Parliament. Minority Government is Good Government – or the best we can hope for, given the sell-outs who populate the two traditional parties.

  19. Norm

    Bloc Q 26
    Con 155
    Greens 0
    Librals 37
    NDP 90

    I think the NDP will be picking up seats from the Bloc and Libs and also spliting enough of the votes in the tight races to give the Cons there Majority they’ve been looking for.

  20. Omar

    CPC 36
    Libs 82
    NDP 168
    Greens 1
    Bloc 21

    Voter turnout 100%

    WOO-HOO!

  21. Omar: LOL. Nice to hear from you again!

  22. sassy

    Looks like my wishful thinking on voter turnout was off by quite a bit.

    Your guesstimate was much closer RT 61.4 %

  23. Well, the weather was quite pleasant across most of the country yesterday, so there you go…

    I wish that I’d only been off by 1.4% on the vote tallies!

  24. Omar

    Hey man. I was being extremely facetious when I made that extremely out there prediction, but I really for the life of me didn’t think Harper would get a majority. Way to fucking go, Ontario.

  25. No, I didn’t think Harper would pull off a majority either. At least not as comfortable a one as he ended up with.

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