All Over But the Voting

A quick scan of the papers indicates that press has rendered its verdict on the outcome of the election – the only questions now remaining being ones of degree. How large will Harper’s victory be? How much will the “orange wave” translate into new seats for the NDP? And finally, how long before the Liberals head into yet another leadership campaign?

Stumping in Montreal, Michael Ignatieff gamely draws a hockey analogy suggesting that many a reversal of fortune has been realized late in the third period and people need to stay tuned until the final siren. A comment that prompted John Ibbitson to whisper in the ear of a fellow reporter that “some people do turn off the TV when it’s 6-0.”

Meanwhile, over at the Globe & Mail, Jane Taber is already performing an autopsy on the Liberal campaign, citing various possible causes of death. So far, her findings are inconclusive, but are trending to “all of the above” as being the most likely culprit.

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10 Comments

Filed under 2011 Canadian Election, Liberal Party of Canada, Michael Ignatieff

10 responses to “All Over But the Voting

  1. hitfan

    First!

    I’m 50/50 on whether or not the NDP will beat the Liberals in the seat count. As I alluded on this and other blogs, the Liberal or Bloc voter who might consider giving Jack Layton a chance will look at the local candidate and many will see the Marxist University student or even one of those candidates that allegedly have never been seen in public during the election. Seeing that, they will just go back to their more usual voting intentions. A lot of the NDP support is soft because of they lack the GOTV effort in those ridings where they could conceivably make a breakthrough.

    In fairness to the NDP, their being the third place federalist party, they aren’t able to attract quality candidates from community and business leaders unless they are in those ridings where they are competitive.

    I was thinking of what would happen if the NDP formed the government; let’s say if the NDP + Liberal caucus outnumbers the Conservatives considerably, thus having the credible moral authority to have a coalition government (and not the silly dog and pony show that was attempted by Dion in ’08), I shudder at the thought of the NDP actually mandating low interest credit rates as they promised. Not that I think that it is not a lofty idea, but there would be negative unintended consequences if they actually did that. I’m certain that the Libs as a junior partner would put a stop to that.

    I think the Liberals will do better than recent polling indicates. Yes, they will likely lose seats, but they have a strong political machine. 1993 did see the destruction of the PC party, but this was because western conservatives just went to Reform and the soft Quebec nationalists went to the Bloc. The Liberals are only being bled by one flank here, instead of two.

  2. Northern PoV

    No Red, there is still lots going on, on the ground.
    I already voted but I am real busy on the GOTV front.
    Thins are going well! Lots of Liberal votes out there folks.
    Keep working and Monday will surprise everyone.

  3. car

    Interesting N PoV. I’m helping out too – in a riding it would be a miracle for the Lib to win, even though she would be a *wonderful* candidate – and *everything* looks better than 2008. I like some of the latest ads the Liberals have launched (I liked the NDP vs Liberal one) and Ignatieff is working so hard – so, like you, I’ll keep hard at it and we shall see. The polls and press keep telling me it must be hopeless, but somehow the donors and people at the doors are fooling us into believing otherwise.

  4. sharonapple88

    With all the Liberal supporters helping out in all the campaigns… you’ve got to wonder if the drop in the polls is the result of people not being home to answer the call when the pollsters dial them up. 😉

    Probably not. (Sigh.) Monday’s going to be brutal.

    Anyway, for what it’s worth, I’ve volunteered too.

  5. Ethan

    I’m looking for a Liberal “dead cat bounce” and an NDP disappointment on Monday night, but anyone who doesn’t think the Liberals are finished for good is kidding themselves.

  6. sapphireandsteel

    You know, when I can’t make a decision or understand the world, I love to go online and have some anonymous guy named Ethan tell me how it is. That makes me feel all warm and fuzzy.

  7. Heh. The Libs may well get mauled on Monday, but it’s a little presumptuous to imagine they’re “finished for good”. I seem to recall that the Conservatives in 1993 had 2 seats.

  8. …it’s a little presumptuous to imagine they’re “finished for good”. I seem to recall that the Conservatives in 1993 had 2 seats.

    I’m not sure that analogy suggests what you want it to.

  9. On reflection, quite so.

  10. crf

    A man who held off on an election too long, making him look like a spineless wimp, who then called an election, seemingly relunctantly, only because Harper (rather gleefully, I think) forced him to, who then campaigned like a cold wet dog, with flimsy kerryesque policies, and an unconvincingly half-hearted attack on Harper’s record.

    Iggy is toast.

    On reflection, it would have been better if the Liberals defeated Harper, made a go of a government by passing a budget, with NDP having some say, then canned that government after only a year, on their terms, and held an election. Conservative support in Ontario is based on their buying votes with “stimulus”. If the Cons are not governing, the voters there have lost the main reason to vote for a Con candidate.

    I suggest that (even) Iggy, or whatever leader the Liberals have left, follow this course. No Matter What They Say.

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