Election Speculation

As speculation mounts about an impending election, I’m sure a lot of Canadians will wonder about the reasons for its necessity at this time.

Perhaps it’s just my relative indifference of late, but I really don’t see any compelling reason to go to the polls – especially given the alternative choices on offer. What significant difference would the Liberals bring to the government in the highly unlikely event that they managed to supplant Harper’s Conservatives?

Most probably if there was to be an election, according to surveys, the Liberals would be decimated – which may not be an altogether bad thing, given that it would eventually produce a new leader, shake up the establishment, and perhaps even result in some fresh policy directions for the party.

Of course, it could be argued that the downside of that would be a Conservative majority for the next four years… but then it’s not like they haven’t already been governing as such, with little restraint from the Liberals – indeed, with their backing in most instances. However, given absolutely free reign and untrammeled power, perhaps then Canadians will finally be able to take the full measure of what the Harper Government® is truly all about. And maybe that – as disagreeable and possibly damaging to the country though the prospect may be – is what’s required to jump start the political dynamic in Canada.

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10 Comments

Filed under 2011 Canadian Election, HARPER Government of Canada, Liberal Party of Canada, Michael Ignatieff

10 responses to “Election Speculation

  1. TofKW

    I disagree with you here RT, we need an election now if for no other reason the atmosphere on Parliament Hill has become absolutely toxic. Can you imagine if somehow the budget passes, and all these parties are forced to work together for the next year like this?

    Also this election will be very different from 2008, in that regardless of the outcome, the political landscape will change significantly.

    Outcomes, ranked by most likely scenario (in my opinion):

    1) Stable Conservative minority – the most boring result, as Harper will stay on and Ignatieff may stay around for another fight provided LPC numbers gain over 2008. However this will probably be Layton and Duceppe’s final federal elections. Regardless of outcome I don’t expect the two senior-most party leaders will fight another one after 2010. May will be gone from the Greens as well.

    2) Unstable Conservative Minority – This is assuming the mini-scandals all start to resonate &/or the F-35 and corp tax issues do damage to the CPC. If this is the case then it’s reasonable to expect the LPC will gain ridings, possibly to 2006 levels (~100 seats) and Ignatieff will definitely be around for another election as opposition leader. Again, any or all of Layton, Duceppe and May will be gone regardless. If the CPC drops below 120 seats, watch for Harper’s reign as leader to become rocky. Open talk of replacing him will finally come out into the open.

    Tie for 3)-
    A – Conservative Majority – Regardless of the scandals Harper is a master on the campaign trail, he rarely if ever makes mistakes which is why this scenario is even possible. If this occurs Iggy is gone, as are Layton, Ducceppe and May. I’ll agree with you here Martin in that this outcome is the best for the Liberals, as they will finally have a full 4-year time out to rejuvenate the party without the worry of needing to be election-ready (this has been their biggest problem over the past 5 years). Whether this is the best result for Canada is another story, but the political landscape in this country will change dramatically should this occur.

    B – Unstable Liberal Minority &/or Unstable LPC-NDP Coalition – No question here Harper would be gone as PM and CPC leader should this occur. This is actually the best outcome for the CPC, as they will finally be rid of a guy that automatically pisses off 60% of the population. Changing leaders will give them an excellent opportunity to win back a majority the next time around, as a weak LPC &/or coalition government will not last long before it inevitably falls. Imagine someone like Bernard Lord or Jim Prentice running the CPC, finally making it a big-tent party and making it a formidable force to become the new ‘natural governing party’? Conservatives should consider this an opportunity, rather than fear their beloved Harper would be gone. The other possibility here is the LPC and NDP may consider merger afterall.

    4) Stable Liberal Minority – This can only occur if Ignatieff surprises everyone and runs a rock-solid campaign, coupled with Liberals sticking to the party message and their leader (for a change), and the Harper government getting battered by all the running scandals in the media. I doubt this could happen, but it is a possibility, so I’ll examine the outcomes. Harper is gone but this time the CPC may not make it back to power so quickly, watch the CPC wallow for 4-5 years like the LPC should a reversal of fortunes occur. Also the idea of an LPC-NDP merger would be less likely if the Liberals think they have a shot of doing better in the following election.

    5) Liberal Majority – Don’t ask me how this is even possible, maybe say the CPC government was found to be illegally funneling money from the west to Quebec to improve their fortunes there, or we find out Harper eats kittens or something? Anyhow should this happen not only is Harper gone, but the entire CPC is in deep trouble and they would have to seriously re-think their raison d’être.

    6) Aliens land on Parliament Hill – I consider this more likely than the NDP winning government in any way. And I’ll leave things at that 🙂

  2. billg

    Your commenting on election possibilitys?
    Whats next on your blog..an online poll?
    Dont do it RT.

  3. sapphireandsteel

    not the kittens TofKW!!!

  4. TofKW

    not the kittens TofKW!!!

    Well it would be make for a plausible explanation why the Harpers keep adopting strays around 24 Sussex. 😀

  5. TofKW’s fifth option might also occur if, before election day, Alberta either finally, mercifully separates or is unilaterally de-confederated by Order-In-Council, neither of which event could happen too soon for me.

    Now, like Red, I do not want to see a writ dropped (until midsummer, at the earliest)—not because I’ve nobody to vote for, a situation I’ve had to get used to, but because I want the name “Bruce Carson” to spread as wide and as black a bruise as possible onto Stephen Harper’s baby-powdered ass before his sorry carcass gets dragged before a vengeful electorate.

    And if Iggy were politically smart (or even politically aware), he would stand in the House and announce that his party is prepared to pass the budget despite its many disagreeable features only because so many matters touching upon the prime minister’s personal integrity and requiring thorough, sustained, and uninterrupted investigation are currently before committees and officers of the House.

    Then, he would sit down and spend the next few months doing everything in his power to ensure that the words “Bruce Carson”, “Stephen Harper’s best friend and most trusted advisor”, “illegal lobbying”, and “22-year-old ex-prostitute fiancée” appeared together daily in as many mass-media venues as possible.

    As a kicker, Ignatieff might also suggest that, given Carson’s intimate proximity to the prime minister and given Carson’s own claim to have spoken with him regularly during his attempts to peddle influence, largely on behalf of his barely post-pubescent ex-hooker girlfriend, with two separate federal ministries, the prime minister should step aside until the various ongoing investigations have concluded.

    That’s more or less what Chrétien would be doing to Harper now and what Harper would be doing to Ignatieff if it were our learned Leader of the Loyal Opposition who had dragged into the highest echelons of the PMO a “best friend and trusted advisor” who also happened to be a disbarred ex-con grafter and who decided to spend his idle hours (of which there appears to have been many) exploiting that relationship, almost certainly with the prime minister’s full knowledge, in order to rip out of the public purse a gob of extra shekels for his 20-something call-girl squeeze.

    Election now? Yawn. Election in June? Bring it. By that time, Pavlovian Albertans will still queue up to heave Harper’s fat ass back into office, but he’ll otherwise hardly be electable as a Yellowknife dogcatcher.

  6. Northern PoV

    Support a grassroots campaign to defeat the Harper gang: http://catch22campaign.ca/

  7. Shiner

    22-year-old ex-prostitute fiancée

    Question: If one leaves the prostitution business for a sugar daddy and to allegedly siphon off nice chunks of public contracts allegedly with said sugar daddy’s help, does one get to be called an “ex-prostitute”?

  8. TofKW

    A good point shiner, really she’s expanded her clientele. Instead of just fucking Carson (or anyone else paying her rate) she’s progressed to fucking every Canadian taxpayer.

    – – –

    Sir Francis wrote: “By that time, Pavlovian Albertans will still queue up to heave Harper’s fat ass back into office, but he’ll otherwise hardly be electable as a Yellowknife dogcatcher.

    You know, the CPC could field an orangutan in any Albertan riding, and still end up with 60% of the popular vote. Actually, in the case of some Alberta MPs an orangutan would be an improvement.

  9. Shiner:

    Well observed. I used “ex” before “prostitute” merely to distinguish her from the rest of the CPC.

    TofKW:

    At least she’s really earning her money when she’s servicing Carson. Have you seen the guy?

  10. TofKW: I can’t really disagree with the points you’ve made about what you see as the necessity for an election, but I don’t believe that it’s one shared by people who aren’t political junkies and don’t eagerly follow the inner machinations of the Hill (and wouldn’t even know what was meant if you said “the Hill”).

    Terrific summary of the possible outcomes, btw!

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